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Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate race in Democrats' favor

Steadysecond windCoverage went quiet for 6 days, then returned with 80 more reports - 32 voices in all.
After publishing: 1 headline quietly rewritten, 2 descriptions edited, 1 URL changed4 changes
  1. salinapost.comseen 29 Aug, 03:36description edited
    what the description said, before and after

    Senator Marshall and Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins in southwest Kansas in Feb. 2025- photo f

    -Senator Marshall and Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins in southwest Kansas in Feb. 2025- photo

  2. The Hillseen 28 Sept, 00:25headline rewritten

    GOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red-state KansasGOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red state Kansas

  3. newsbusters.orgseen 14 Oct, 09:28URL changed

    now resolves towww.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/jorge-bonilla/2026/10/11/abc-finds-acceptable-christian-gives-democrat-adam-hamilton-his

  4. Axiosseen 16 Oct, 11:01description edited
    what the description said, before and after

    A top Trump political operative has been tapped to help boost Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall 's campaign in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election, the latest sign of how Republicans are scrambling to defend the red-state seat. Why it matters: The hiring of veteran strategist Chris Grant reflects the GOP's growing anxiety over Kansas' Senate race. Marshall is running neck and neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state President Trump won by 16 points in 2024. Republicans fear losing Kansas could be...

    A top Trump political operative has been tapped to help boost Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall 's campaign in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election , the latest sign of how Republicans are scrambling to defend the red-state seat. Why it matters: The hiring of veteran strategist Chris Grant reflects the GOP's growing anxiety over Kansas' Senate race . Marshall is running neck and neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state President Trump won by 16 points in 2024. Republicans fear losing Kansas could...

original reportingcopies
Wed, 5 August 2026peak 15 reports on Tue, 20 October 2026Thu, 22 October 2026

What it is about

SabatoRev. Adam HamiltonSen. Roger MarshallDemocratsKansasR-Kan.Kyle KondikAnna KaminskiFranklin RooseveltTyson BrodyRoger MarshallAdam HamiltonNoah TaylorDemocratic SenateUnited Methodist ChurchUniversity Of VirginiaCspanKansas City, Kansas, United StatesKansas, United StatesUnited Methodist Church, Florida, United States

Who published it, and when

original reportcopyedited after publishingfirst to report
salinapost.com1 original report1 original report - edited after publishing1 copy echoing PBS NewsHour
greatbendpost.com1 original report
hppr.org1 copy echoing greatbendpost.com
crooksandliars.com1 original report1 original report
hayspost.com1 original report
rawstory.com1 original report
PBS NewsHour1 original report1 original report1 original report
wibw.com1 original report
The Hill1 original report2 original reports1 original report1 original report1 original report1 original report - edited after publishing2 original reports1 original report1 original report1 original report2 original reports4 original reports
yahoo.com1 copy echoing The Hill1 original report
newsweek.com1 original report
katu.com1 original report - 1 copy echoing fox23.com1 copy echoing wgxa.tv
wgme.com2 copies echoing fox23.com
fox23.com1 original report - 1 copy echoing katu.com
wchstv.com1 copy echoing fox23.com
aol.com1 original report
hani.co.kr1 original report
dailycaller.com1 original report1 original report
9 Aug, 16:30over 2 months22 Oct, 02:54

+ 16 more outlets · 19 reports left out of the cascade - too little in common with the story to place

How it spread - 75 original reports, 13 reprints

  1. Wed, 5 August 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill17:32

      Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted the Kansas Senate race from safe Republican to likely Republican following the Rev. Adam Hamilton’s Democratic primary win. Sabato’s Crystal Ball said a Hamilton win is a “long shot” but highlighted his $3.09 million fundraising advantage over incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) last quarter as a growing...

  2. Sun, 9 August 2026

    1 report
  3. Mon, 10 August 2026

    1 report
  4. Tue, 18 August 2026

    1 report
  5. Sat, 22 August 2026

    1 report
  6. Mon, 24 August 2026

    1 report
  7. Wed, 26 August 2026

    1 report
  8. Wed, 2 September 2026

    1 report
  9. Thu, 10 September 2026

    1 report
  10. Sat, 12 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill22:44

      Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kans.) appeared to shift his opinion on President Trump’s $5,000 dividends announced earlier this week. In a debate at the Kansas State Fair against Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton, a moderator asked both candidates if they supported the dividends, citing the proposal’s $1.2 trillion cost amid the growing national debt. “I’m going to...

  11. Sun, 13 September 2026

    1 report
  12. Wed, 16 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill17:23

      Former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves (R) on Tuesday endorsed Adam Hamilton, a Democrat challenging Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R). Saying the country is “facing increasing partisan gridlock and division,” Graves said it is “time Kansas does something different” and elect Hamilton, a Methodist minister. “For the last six years, Senator Roger Marshall has turned his...

      1 reprint
  13. Fri, 18 September 2026

    5 reports
  14. Mon, 21 September 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill13:30

      A Democratic challenger is running neck-and-neck with Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in the Kansas U.S. Senate race, reflecting broader national discontent with the Trump administration's economic policies and local controversies surrounding Marshall's medical debt collection practices.

    • politicalwire.com19:52

      A Republican source familiar with the U.S. Senate race in Kansas said private polling also showed Adam Hamilton (D) with a slight lead over Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), The Hill reports.

  15. Wed, 23 September 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill13:30

      The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report on Wednesday shifted the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats, with just more than a month before the November midterm elections. Kansas shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" for Sen. Roger Marshall's (R-Kan.) race to keep his seat against Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton....

    • PBS NewsHour22:35

      Former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves, a Republican, crossed party lines to endorse Democrat Adam Hamilton in his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Graves said the country is facing "increasing partisan gridlock and division" and that it's "time Kansas does something different." He joined Geoff Bennett to discuss that decision and what it says about his view of the Republican Party today.

  16. Thu, 24 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill19:53

      Arch Naramore, who mounted a primary challenge to GOP Sen. Roger Marshall (Kan.) earlier this year, endorsed the senator’s Democratic opponent Thursday. Naramore said in a YouTube video he has “always” been a Republican. But he still threw his support behind Democrat Adam Hamilton, who is seeking to unseat Marshall in the Senate this November....

  17. Sun, 27 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill16:00edited after publishing

      previouslyGOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red-state Kansas

      It's been nearly a century since Kansas voters sent a Democrat to the Senate. But Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, is looking to make that jump as Republicans grow more and more unsettled about incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall’s chances in the heartland. “It's all or nothing in a sense, because the story is that...

  18. Tue, 29 September 2026

    1 report
    • postindependent.com23:28

      Senate District 8 candidates Corey Marshall and incumbent Dylan Roberts drew sharp contrasts over affordability, energy, immigration and the role of state government Monday during a candidate forum at the Ute Theater in Rifle. The...

  19. Fri, 2 October 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill17:52

      Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden (R) became the second former GOP governor to support Democrat Adam Hamilton over Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) in November's Kansas Senate race. Hayden, who served from 1987 to 1991, published an op-ed in The Wichita Eagle on Friday endorsing Hamilton for a seat that has not been held by a...

    • The Hill19:31

      Kansas Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton said “please, no” on Thursday to the possibility of former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigning with him ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Appearing on Politico’s “The Conversation,” Hamilton discussed which national Democrats he would be willing to campaign with. “It wasn't like I was a huge champion for...

  20. Mon, 5 October 2026

    2 reports
  21. Tue, 6 October 2026

    2 reports
  22. Thu, 8 October 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill14:32

      The battle for the Senate is expanding into Kansas, where Democrat Adam Hamilton is running even with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Decision Desk HQ’s latest polling average. Plus, how the tightest races across the country are shaping the fight for control of the upper chamber. Join The Hill’s senior vice president of editorial content, Bill...

  23. Fri, 9 October 2026

    4 reports
    • newrepublic.com00:00

      Democrat Adam Hamilton is polling shockingly well in the deep red state’s Senate race.

    • Google News - Top Stories16:47

      Top Democratic Group Pumps Millions Into Kansas Senate Race The New York Times Kansas Senate Race Is a Surprising New Midterm Fight The New York Times Kansas’ 94-year streak is unlike anything else in American politics CNN Who Is Adam Hamilton? Pastor Could Be Kansas’ First Democratic Senator Since 1932 Forbes Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue The New Republic

    • Google News - Top Stories18:28

      Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race Politico Kansas Senate Race Is a Surprising New Midterm Fight The New York Times Kansas’ 94-year streak is unlike anything else in American politics CNN Who Is Adam Hamilton? Pastor Could Be Kansas’ First Democratic Senator Since 1932 Forbes Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue The New Republic

    • Google News - Top Stories19:23

      The Midterm Senate Fight Spreads to a Surprising New Battleground The New York Times Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race Politico Kansas’ 94-year streak is unlike anything else in American politics CNN Who Is Adam Hamilton? Pastor Could Be Kansas’ First Democratic Senator Since 1932 Forbes Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue The New Republic

  24. Sun, 11 October 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill17:09

      Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton (D) on Sunday clapped back at Vice President Vance's attacks on his religious beliefs, calling the attacks "really sad" and "pathetic." ABC's Jonathan Karl sat down to interview Hamilton in the Sunflower State and asked the moderate pastor about Vance, who has been outspoken about his religious beliefs since before...

  25. Mon, 12 October 2026

    3 reports
  26. Tue, 13 October 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill01:03

      Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer on Monday said he is "absolutely" concerned about Republicans losing the Kansas Senate race, which election handicappers say could flip in favor of the Democrats. NewsNation's "The Hill" host Blake Burman asked Spicer if he had any worry that Republicans could lose the Kansas Senate seat helmed by...

    • The Hill19:40

      President Trump will hit the campaign trail in Kansas next week, the Republican National Committee (RNC) announced on Tuesday, as the state’s Senate race grows more competitive. Trump’s upcoming rally Monday in Wichita is the latest sign Republicans are paying more attention to their chances in Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-Kan.) reelection bid. The nonpartisan Cook...

  27. Wed, 14 October 2026

    7 reports
  28. Thu, 15 October 2026

    3 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories09:00

      A Megachurch Pastor is Running for Senate. Will Democrats Vote for Him? The New York Times Hamilton reports $10.6M Q3 haul for Kansas Senate race - Live Updates Politico Kansas' Senate race is a coin flip Axios Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate to toss-up The Hill In Kansas, a newly competitive Senate race tests limit of Trump's unpopular policies NPR

    • mymotherlode.com12:01

      WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall wanted to solve a water rights dispute in rural Kansas that pitted farmers against environmentalists and threatened the health of a cherished wildlife refuge. The avid outdoorsman requested a $4.2 million earmark, records show, to help finance improvements that would increase the flow of water into the Quivira

    • Bloomberg Politics21:52

      The US Senate race in Kansas has turned into a tossup according to pollster Larry Sabato. Polls show incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton are neck-and-neck. A Democrat hasn't won this seat in almost 100 years. Bloomberg's Amanda Albright reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

  29. Sun, 18 October 2026

    1 report
    • Axios12:10

      Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory across the country this midterm election cycle , and it's putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s. Why it matters: Democrats hope ending political droughts in states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina will help make inroads in what has long been off-limits territory. Kansas - 1932 Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat...

  30. Mon, 19 October 2026

    2 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories20:57

      Trump rallies in Kansas as rising farm costs fuel Republican concerns about voter turnout AP News In ruby-red Kansas, Trump contemplates the possibility of a Democratic win in the state The Guardian Trump uses antisemitic slur in defending Sen. Roger Marshall at rally in Kansas NBC News President Trump headlines rally in Park City KAKE Election Dispatches: Trump Rallies in Kansas, Where Republicans Are Fighting to Preserve a Senate Seat The New York Times

    • The Hill21:00

      President Trump heads to Kansas on Monday evening as Republicans look to shore up support in an unexpectedly competitive Senate race with just two weeks until the midterm elections. Trump is expected to rally voters for incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R), who faces a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that has long...

  31. Tue, 20 October 2026

    13 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories00:27

      2026 Midterm Elections: Trump Campaigns in Kansas Fox News Trump says ‘polls are fake’ as he campaigns for GOP candidate in deep-red Kansas CNN Adam Hamilton makes final push with JoCo rallies opposite President Trump, Sen. Marshall rally KSHB 41 Kansas City Trump uses antisemitic slur in defending Sen. Roger Marshall at rally in Kansas NBC News ‘Very, very, very afraid’: Protesters cast Trump rally as an act of desperation Wichita Eagle

    • Google News - Top Stories02:08

      Trump uses antisemitic slur in defending Sen. Roger Marshall at rally in Kansas NBC News LIVE COVERAGE: President Trump visiting Wichita area today for midterm rally KWCH In ruby-red Kansas, Trump contemplates the possibility of a Democratic win in the state The Guardian ‘Very, very, very afraid’: Protesters cast Trump rally as an act of desperation Wichita Eagle Trump Uses Slur to Defend GOP Senator in Combative Speech Bloomberg.com

    • The Hill02:10

      President Trump announced Monday that a new $8 billion program will help provide temporary relief to farmers during the harvest season. Trump announced the Harvest Fuel Relief Program during his rally in Kansas stumping for GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, who is running for reelection in a competitive race against his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton. He...

    • Bloomberg Politics02:24

      President Donald Trump used an antisemitic term during a rally in Kansas as he came to the defense of Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who faces a surprisingly competitive race in a deeply red state.

    • The Guardian World04:13

      The president came out in support of Senator Roger Marshall, who is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton The fact that Donald Trump was here at all said more about a looming electoral disaster facing his Republican party next month than anything contained in his dark and discursive 98-minute stump speech. On Monday, amid raucous chants of “USA! USA!”, the president held his first campaign rally in Kansas for eight years. No Democrat has won a US Senate seat in...

    • Google News - Top Stories09:27

      In Kansas, Trump says a pastor running as a Democrat ‘mocks Jesus’ The Washington Post Trump rallies in Kansas as rising farm costs fuel Republican concerns about voter turnout KRON4 🎥Highlights of President Trump's rally for Marshall in Wichita Hays Post Transcript: President Trump Remarks at Wichita, Kansas Rally – 10/19/26 The Singju Post Trump rallies on Republican turf as midterm fears mount - International - World Ahram Online

    • The Hill14:26

      President Trump used an antisemitic slur at a rally in Kansas on Monday while defending Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) over revelations he sued his patients for unpaid medical bills. Trump has defended Marshall for going after the unpaid bills, saying he was “mandated by law” to do so. “He was mandated by law to request,...

    • yahoo.com15:54

      GARDEN CITY, Kansas, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The last time the state of Kansas sent a Democrat to the US Senate, the Great Depression was ravaging the state, wheat prices had collapsed and drought was turning the Great Plains into the Dust Bowl. Some 94 years later, Kansas may do it again.

    • The Hill16:31

      Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton (D) he was “glad” President Trump campaigned with his opponent, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, just two weeks out from their midterm election face-off. Appearing on CNN’s “The Lead” Monday — the same day Trump stumped for Marshall in Park City, Kansas, host Jake Tapper asked Hamilton about the president's campaigning...

    • Google News - Top Stories16:54

      ‘Everything you said there was a lie’: Joe Scarborough rips Trump’s Kansas rally MS NOW In Kansas, Trump says a pastor running as a Democrat ‘mocks Jesus’ The Washington Post Five things that stood out in Trump’s night of bluster and revelry at Kansas rally Kansas City Star How many people attended Trump’s ‘Kansas Style’ rally near Wichita? Estimates released Wichita Eagle Democrat Hamilton welcomes Trump's Kansas rally for vulnerable Senate Republican KOMO

    • cbs2iowa.com20:20

      The president is hoping his presence in the state will boost Republican turnout, but his unpopular agenda threatens to sink Senator Marshall's campaign.

      2 reprints
    • PBS NewsHour22:40

      At a rally in Kansas on Monday, President Trump looked to boost Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in his reelection bid. Marshall faces a surprisingly close race with his Democratic challenger, Pastor Adam Hamilton. William Brangham discusses the Senate race with Jared Cerullo of PBS Kansas, the host of the weekly current affairs show, "Kansas Week."

    • The Guardian World23:06

      Anti-Defamation League post decries ‘shylock’ slur but does not explain that president used it at Kansas rally on Monday The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) denounced the use of the term “shylock” as antisemitic on Tuesday, without explaining that the slur had been used a day earlier by Donald Trump in a speech in Kansas. Trump used the slur during a Monday night rally in support of Republican senator Roger Marshall, who is locked in a closer-than-expected re-election fight against Democratic...

  32. Wed, 21 October 2026

    5 reports
    • ČT24 (Czechia)04:00

      Americký Kansas do Senátu téměř sto let posílal jen republikány. Přesto demokratický kandidát Adam Hamilton svádí vyrovnaný souboj s republikánem Rogerem Marshallem. Situaci před volbami Republikánské straně komplikují rozhodnutí prezidenta Donalda Trumpa, která vedla k vysokým cenám pohonným hmot a životních nákladů. Demokraté mají vyrovnané šance i v dalších státech, které jsou klíčové pro zisk horní komory.

    • The Hill10:00

      The top candidates in the Kansas Senate race will face off on the debate stage on Wednesday evening with less than two weeks until Election Day. Incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is fending off a challenge from Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton in a race that has grown increasingly competitive. The pair will face questions about...

    • The Hill11:08

      In today’s issue: Sen. Roger Marshall (Kan.) faces his second and final debate against Democrat Adam Hamilton as the first-term Republican fights for his political life in a razor-tight race. The race has the potential to be biggest surprise of the entire midterm cycle, in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the...

    • ibtimes.co.uk12:01

      Donald Trump criticised Democratic Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over alleged comments about Jesus, transgender issues, race and the United Methodist church's PrideFest sponsorship.

    • The Hill22:00

      Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton are set to square off in their second and final debate Wednesday night. The debate is hosted by Nexstar Media Group affiliate WDAF. Nexstar also owns The Hill. Marshall is fighting for his political life in a race that wasn't expected to be close just months ago....

  33. Thu, 22 October 2026

    3 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories01:53

      Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton face off in fiery final Kansas Senate debate NBC News Kansas Senate Debate Live Updates: Marshall and Hamilton Face Off as Polls Show a Dead Heat The New York Times Fact Check: Marshall and Hamilton debate in race for Kansas seat in U.S. Senate Kansas City Star Could disillusioned Kansas voters send their first Democrat to the US Senate in 94 years? Reuters Analysis | Here’s what’s making the Kansas Senate race so competitive The Washington Post

    • The Hill02:47

      Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) faced Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor, in their final debate Wednesday night, amid signs that the race is tighter than Republicans had anticipated. Both men walked a narrow political tightrope at the debate hosted by Nexstar Media Group. Hamilton sought distance from high-profile Democrats — like former President Biden and Senate...

    • Google News - Top Stories02:54

      Farmers, Health Care and Highways: 5 Takeaways from the Kansas Senate Debate The New York Times Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton face off in fiery final Kansas Senate debate NBC News Fact Check: Marshall and Hamilton debate in race for Kansas seat in U.S. Senate Kansas City Star As Kansas Senate race tightens, Marshall argues opponent is just another Democrat, while Hamilton says he's "independent-minded" CBS News Analysis | Here’s what’s making the Kansas Senate race so competitive The...

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