The Senate races most likely to flip less than a month from Election Day
What it is about
Who published it, and when
8 reports left out of the cascade - too little in common with the story to place
How it spread - 25 original reports
Mon, 12 October 2026
1 report- The Hill10:00first to report
The race for control of the Senate is heating up, with forecasters increasingly moving races in the Democrats' direction less than a month out from the election. Last week, nonpartisan election forecasters Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted Senate races in Kansas, New Hampshire,...
Wed, 14 October 2026
1 report- PBS NewsHour16:40
Let's get into the map and math.
Fri, 16 October 2026
1 report- The Hill10:00
As Democrats batten down the hatches for a harrowing election night, some are already tossing ideas around about what the first priorities would be in the event they win back the Senate majority. Democrats have about a 56 percent chance of winning the Senate majority in November, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), although they...
Sun, 18 October 2026
1 report- El Pais English04:00
A handful of states will determine which party controls the upper chamber. Assign each one to the Democrats or Republicans and see the outcome
Mon, 19 October 2026
1 report- The Hill12:30
These Democrats may be benefiting as much from Republican weakness and the national environment as from an affirmative embrace of their politics.
Tue, 20 October 2026
2 reports- The Hill18:44
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Tuesday moved Minnesota's Senate race from likely to lean Democrat, while also moving South Carolina's Senate seat from likely Republican to lean Republican. The moves give each party something to be hopeful about in the homestretch to the midterms, with Republicans hoping to flip the open...
- The Hill19:23
Nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving 28 House races in Democrats’ direction with just two weeks until the midterms. When adding up the seats Crystal Ball says are either safe, likely or leaning toward one party, the new projections put Democrats above the 218 needed for a House majority. In other words, Democrats...
Wed, 21 October 2026
5 reports- The Hill12:41
DDHQ's forecast, last updated Oct. 17, has Democrats favored in 20 of the 36 races, with four rated as toss-ups.
- oleantimesherald.com16:25
ALBANY (TNS) — Democrats already have a tight grip on the New York Senate, but they’re hoping they can regain a supermajority in this year’s elections. Leaders of both parties said they’re focusing on seven districts from Brooklyn to central New York. Democrats control 41 of the chamber’s 63 seats. Flipping another seat from Republican control would return Democrats to the two-thirds majority they won in 2020. The party lost...
- Bloomberg Politics18:24
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said that the upcoming midterm elections will be about 'overall environment' than about developments in individual races. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 28 House ratings toward Democrats earlier this week and Kondik said that Democrats will do 'quite well' in swing House districts, while control of the Senate is still 'up in the air.' (Source: Bloomberg)
- The Hill20:14
Polling numbers from nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report released Wednesday found Democrats leading in three seats critical to retaking the Senate majority in November. The survey, conducted in concert with Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, placed Democrats ahead in the Texas, Iowa and Ohio Senate races. The party's...
- The Hill22:02
Steve Kornacki, NBC News’s chief data analyst, on Wednesday morning said there is growing indication that Minnesota's tight Senate race could swing in the GOP’s favor in the November election. “There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats,” Kornacki said on the “Today” show. The Democratic nominee, Minnesota Lt....
Thu, 22 October 2026
1 report- The Hill12:00
Three dozen governor's mansions are on the ballot this fall, with several battleground contests that could shape national politics through the end of the second Trump administration. Decision Desk HQ's (DDHQ) forecast has Democrats favored in 21 of the 36 races, with a chance of flipping four GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia...
Fri, 23 October 2026
3 reports- El País (Spain)09:30
De acuerdo al agregador de encuestas de EL PAÍS, el Partido Demócrata ganaría cinco escaños que actualmente ocupan los republicanos
- The Hill14:07
Nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report has shifted 19 House seats in Democrats' direction less than two weeks before the midterm elections, according to its latest report published Friday. The shift includes six seats held by Republicans that were previously noted as a “Toss Up” and have now been changed to “Lean Democrat": Reps. Juan Ciscomani...
- The Hill21:57
The Cook Political Report is shifting a closely watched gubernatorial contest toward Democrats after a controversial campaign ad shook up the race. The nonpartisan election forecaster moved the governor’s race in Ohio from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” now favoring Amy Acton (D) to beat Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the Buckeye State. The race was...
Sat, 24 October 2026
3 reports- Google News - Top Stories09:00
Election 2026: How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on NBC News See the Districts That Will Determine Control of the House The New York Times Cook Political Report Moves 19 House Races Toward Democrats, Predicts They’ll Win Control Forbes House battleground map tightens as GOP scrambles to shore up red seats Politico Democrats’ Projected Majority Grows as 19 More House Races Shift Away From the GOP Cook Political Report
- Google News - Top Stories09:00
Interactive graphic: Explore how the battle for the House could play out NBC News See the Districts That Will Determine Control of the House The New York Times Election 2026: How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on NBC News Cook Political Report Moves 19 House Races Toward Democrats, Predicts They’ll Win Control Forbes House battleground map tightens as GOP scrambles to shore up red seats Politico
- Bloomberg Politics14:00
Republicans began the 2026 midterm election cycle with the Senate map as one of their biggest advantages. It hasn’t turned out that way.
Sun, 25 October 2026
2 reports- NPR News09:00
In a sign of the potentially dire midterm political environment, Republicans have spent millions of dollars playing defense in Arkansas, one of the most conservative states in the country.
- The Hill21:00
Democrats across battleground districts are holding Republicans’ feet to the fire over the Medicaid cuts in their signature One Big Beautiful Bill law. In advertisements and on debate stages, the Democrats are hammering their opponents over their support for a law that will reduce Medicaid funding by nearly $1 trillion to pay for tax cuts primarily...
Mon, 26 October 2026
4 reports- NPR News09:00
Republicans redrew congressional district lines to try to tilt the midterms in their favor. But now they are facing expensive and competitive races they had hoped to outmaneuver.
- Il Fatto Quotidiano (Italy)12:45
I repubblicani investono fondi in Stati un tempo dati sicuri, mentre i sondaggi li danno in svantaggio alla Camera e in una battaglia fino all’ultimo voto al Senato. A poco più di una settimana dalle elezioni di midterm, la speranza e l’entusiasmo dei democratici per la possibilità di conquistare il Congresso continuano a salire. Come […] L'articolo Dall’Alaska al Kansas: tutti gli Stati che non sono più “sicuri” per i repubblicani. Le sfide cruciali al Senato per le elezioni di Midterm...
- Süddeutsche Zeitung (Germany)15:39
Trumps Republikaner gehen mit einem gewaltigen Vorsprung in die Zwischenwahlen – trotzdem könnte den Demokraten die Aufholjagd gelingen. Was die jüngsten Umfragen verraten.
- Bloomberg Politics18:34
Erin Covey, House of Representatives editor at the Cook Political Report, said that the acceleration of voters towards Democrat candidates is less to do with a shifting landscape and more that people are beginning to pay attention as election day draws nearer and said that while she expects a blue wave, it won't hit all areas evenly. Covey also discussed the role of redistricting in the midterms and said that Democrats are poised to pick up House seats in North Carolina despite the fact that...