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The Senate races most likely to flip less than a month from Election Day

Rising2 outlets reported this in 8 reports over 5 days
Mon, 12 October 2026peak 2 reports on Wed, 21 October 2026Sat, 24 October 2026

What it is about

DemocratsCook Political ReportUniversity of Virginia Center for PoliticsKansasNew HampshireGOPMinnesotaSouth CarolinaNew River StrategiesGS Strategy GroupTexasIowaOhioSteve KornackiNBC NewsJuan CiscomaniRepublicansHouseAmy ActonVivek Ramaswamy

Who published it, and when

original reportfirst to report
The Hill1 original report1 original report1 original report1 original report1 original report
Google News - Top Stories2 original reports
12 Oct, 10:00over 12 days24 Oct, 09:00

1 report left out of the cascade - too little in common with the story to place

How it spread - 8 original reports

  1. Mon, 12 October 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill10:00first to report

      The race for control of the Senate is heating up, with forecasters increasingly moving races in the Democrats' direction less than a month out from the election. Last week, nonpartisan election forecasters Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted Senate races in Kansas, New Hampshire,...

  2. Tue, 20 October 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill18:44

      The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Tuesday moved Minnesota's Senate race from likely to lean Democrat, while also moving South Carolina's Senate seat from likely Republican to lean Republican. The moves give each party something to be hopeful about in the homestretch to the midterms, with Republicans hoping to flip the open...

  3. Wed, 21 October 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill20:14

      Polling numbers from nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report released Wednesday found Democrats leading in three seats critical to retaking the Senate majority in November. The survey, conducted in concert with Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, placed Democrats ahead in the Texas, Iowa and Ohio Senate races. The party's...

    • The Hill22:02

      Steve Kornacki, NBC News’s chief data analyst, on Wednesday morning said there is growing indication that Minnesota's tight Senate race could swing in the GOP’s favor in the November election. “There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats,” Kornacki said on the “Today” show. The Democratic nominee, Minnesota Lt....

  4. Fri, 23 October 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill14:07

      Nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report has shifted 19 House seats in Democrats' direction less than two weeks before the midterm elections, according to its latest report published Friday. The shift includes six seats held by Republicans that were previously noted as a “Toss Up” and have now been changed to “Lean Democrat": Reps. Juan Ciscomani...

    • The Hill21:57

      The Cook Political Report is shifting a closely watched gubernatorial contest toward Democrats after a controversial campaign ad shook up the race. The nonpartisan election forecaster moved the governor’s race in Ohio from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” now favoring Amy Acton (D) to beat Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the Buckeye State. The race was...

  5. Sat, 24 October 2026

    2 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories09:00

      Election 2026: How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on NBC News See the Districts That Will Determine Control of the House The New York Times Cook Political Report Moves 19 House Races Toward Democrats, Predicts They’ll Win Control Forbes House battleground map tightens as GOP scrambles to shore up red seats Politico Democrats’ Projected Majority Grows as 19 More House Races Shift Away From the GOP Cook Political Report

    • Google News - Top Stories09:00

      Interactive graphic: Explore how the battle for the House could play out NBC News See the Districts That Will Determine Control of the House The New York Times Election 2026: How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on NBC News Cook Political Report Moves 19 House Races Toward Democrats, Predicts They’ll Win Control Forbes House battleground map tightens as GOP scrambles to shore up red seats Politico

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